JUST HOW BADLY COULD CHINA HURT AMERICA IN BATTLE?

by Kyle Mizokami

ast month's confrontation at sea [the article was written in November 2015] between the People's Republic of China and the United States made one fact all too clear: The two countries have very, very different national interests in key strategic areas.

The United States, the dominant power in Asia and the Pacific, would rather retain the status quo while the rising power China wants to carve out its own sphere of influence in the South China Sea. These interests are for the most part mutually exclusive — that is, China's gain must come at a cost to the United States, and vice-versa.

While neither country is interested in war, the two sides are beginning to use military forces — such as the USS Lassen — to get their point across. This leads to an interesting question: If the two countries were to go to war tomorrow, just how much could China hurt the U.S.?

We all know the United States has the world's most powerful conventional and nuclear forces. And war with China is a long, long way off. But for all of the talk of China as a rising military power, modernizing its armed forces with more powerful, more efficient weapons, how much damage could China inflict on the United States?

The answer: not nearly as much as you might think.

For much of Communist China's history, China was a poor country that concentrated on almost purely defensive warfare. As late as 1979, in its disastrous war with Vietnam, it was still practicing ineffective human wave attacks and unable to maintain supply lines five miles long.

Right now, China's military forces are still in the beginning stages of a massive modernization and organizational overhaul. Although China is currently in the process of improving its nuclear forces and expeditionary warfare capability, it still has a long way to go.

Only a small portion of China's conventional forces are capable of targeting American bases overseas, and none of them are capable of attacking the American homeland. Chinese long-range conventional missiles and bombers could target American bases in Korea, Japan, and even as far as Guam, but could not reach Hawaii or even Alaska.

China's navy is rapidly growing, with new carriers, destroyers, submarines, and support vessels leaving the country's shipyards at a startling rate. But the Chinese navy is still much smaller than the U.S. Navy and less capable overall. A Chinese submarine surfaced near the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan just last week, but we don't know if Reagan and its task force detected the submarine first. China's only aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, has never left the Western Pacific and functions primarily as a training carrier.

In a war with America, China's ground forces would have to cross oceans just to reach anywhere useful, and have only four large Type 071 amphibious ships capable of lifting a total of just about 8,000 troops — at the very most. Even then, the overwhelming presence and firepower of the U.S. military would sink all four long before they became a threat.

Conventionally speaking, China could threaten American overseas bases but is unable to touch the American homeland. Nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are an entirely different matter.

Still, China's nuclear forces are probably smaller than you might think. China has an estimated 190 operational nuclear warheads, divided between land-based missiles and ballistic missile submarines.

China has about 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), and though these missiles could reach the continental United States, only a third could reach as far as New York City. Each ICBM has three warheads, each warhead with the destructive power about 20 times that of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

REUTERS/Stringer

China also has four Jin-class ballistic missile submarines, and ideally at least one submarine is supposed to be ready for action at all times. Each sub carries 12 JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Unfortunately for China, these missiles have relatively short ranges and could not hit New York City unless the subs themselves were positioned halfway across the Pacific Ocean.

In the event of a sudden nuclear war, China could launch — at the very most — 62 missiles against the United States. That's enough to ruin anyone's day, but it's far short of the hundreds the United States or Russian Federation could suddenly unleash on each other — or China.

All of this is not to say that China is not a potential threat, nor is war anywhere near likely. Even a Cold War between the United States and China is unlikely due to their economic interconnectivity.

But the U.S. and China will likely become competitors in at least some context. Like checking the rear view mirror, it's a good idea to periodically examine their relative power against one another. In the meantime however, China is very much in the rear view mirror, and has a long, long way to catch up. [The Week/November 10, 2015]

..... Is that right, Mr. Mikozami? Aren't you missing something in the equation of yours?

Russia, China discuss cooperation in various spheres, including military

Putin said China, Russia discuss cooperation in various spheres, including military.

Russia and China can cooperate and complement each other in various spheres, including the military one, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

"We discuss with our partners work in various spheres: in the sphere of nuclear energy, missile technologies and aviation, both in civil industries and in the military sphere," Putin said at a meeting with top managers of leading international news agencies in St. Petersburg on Friday.

"We highly value the level of our cooperation. Both Russia and China need new technologies. And of course we can complement each other," he said. [RBTH/June 18, 2016 INTERFAX]

China and Russia to Increase Number of Military Exercises in 2016

© Sputnik/ Vitaliy Ankov

The Chinese and Russian defense ministers agreed to hold more joint military drills in 2016 than in previous years.

China and Russia are planning to deepen military cooperation and increase the number of joint military exercises in 2016, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and his Chinese counterpart, State Councilor and Defense Minister Gen Chang Wanquan, said in a meeting in Moscow on April 27, TASS reports.

“We highly appreciate a high level of Russian-Chinese contacts both at the state and defense levels. This year we are going to hold more exercises and events than in the past years,” the Russian defense minister said. ”Here I would like to underscore that we will conduct both ground and naval exercises,” Shoigu added. “Certainly, the aim is to strengthen mutually beneficial relations of partnership.”

The largest scheduled Sino-Russian military exercise this year will be the Joint Sea-2016 naval drill, hosted by China.

Defense Minister General Chang Wanquan, who is in Moscow to attend the Fifth Moscow International Security Conference, emphasized that “opinions should be shared and watches synchronized.” In addition, he stated:

Thanks to personal efforts of the two heads of state over the past year, the relations between Russian and Chinese armed forces have been developing at the high level. The sides have been implementing agreements and working side by side in all spheres.

Last week, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov in an interview with Xinhua explained:

Military cooperation between the two countries is highly diverse and has improved significantly over the last three years. The sides are conducting many events between their general staffs and exercises that are broadly stirring up interest and even anxiety among certain countries.

Speaking about the multilateral dimension of the partnership Antonov noted:

A more tight interaction between the military departments corresponds to the national interests of all the SCO member countries, and we expect this interaction to proceed.

China and Russia have steadily increased the number of military exercises over the past year. In 2015, both countries held naval and amphibious assault exercises in the Sea of Japan, a smaller naval drill in the Mediterranean, among a number of other bilateral military exchanges. Both countries have also participated in trilateral, and multilateral exercises, for example, under the umbrella of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Russia and China do not have a formal military alliance and, as a consequence, do not practice complex integrated military operations on the scale NATO countries would.

Joint military exercises still provide several benefits to both countries, in particular for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force given that China has not fought a full-scale war in decades. Next to serving a confidence building function, the drills help improve Chinese and Russian tactical and operational capabilities.

China and Russia to Hold First Computer-Enabled Missile Defense Exercise in May “The Russian and Chinese defense ministers decided to hold the first Air and Space Security 2016 joint computer-assisted command and staff exercise in May 2016 on the premises of the Central Research Institute of the Russian Defense Ministry’s Aerospace Defense Force to practice missile defense,” the press release reads. “The exercise will aim to practice combined operations of Russian and Chinese air and missile defense task forces to provide protection from accidental and provocative attacks of ballistic and cruise missiles,” it adds. The Russian defense ministry also noted that the drill is not directed against a third country. [May 2, 2016.]

In addition, they send a signal to third parties (e.g., the United States) that both countries have an enduring security partnership. [The Diplomat/April 28, 2016.]